Last week was pretty good for us guys. We placed bets on Bellator and Strikeforce events and turned 100 betting units into 207.50. So yes, we doubled our money on a series of five bets, winning four of them. So this week, we’ve got twice as much to play around with as we look at MFC 29, Bellator and Strikeforce. Let’s see what’s shaking.
It’s another big weekend in the Mixed Martial Arts universe. MFC, Strikeforce and Bellator are all in action, with shows airing on HDNet, Showtime and MTV2 and there are some VERY interesting fights out there vying for your hard-earned betting dollar. I’m only going to be looking to put money on the televised main cards, so we’re going to start with MFC and find out if there are any worthwhile bets out there.
If you’re not familiar with the betting rules and odds, check out our first article in the series last week when we discussed odds, and as betting men and women, we’re looking for in a good bet. We want underdogs we feel have a good shot at victory and sure things that aren’t priced out of a decent bet. Let’s get betting, and as a bonus, this week, we’re going to make a parlay bet as well. A parlay is a bet where you bet on more than one fighter in a single bet and to win that bet, all your winners must win. We’ll get into that last. Here’s the main card of MFC and what we will bet on and why.
Terry Martin +120
Douglas Lima -150
Well, I know it might look like an attractive bet to go with Martin here. He’s a UFC veteran, sports a nice 20-8 record and can knock you out with either hand. However, Douglas Lima is the MFC Welterweight Champion for a reason, he’s good. I’m absolutely going with Lima here, and at -150, I like him. I’m going to put 30.00 on him to win 20.00, plus out original 30.00 back. So if Lima wins, we’ll get 50.00 back. We now have 177.50 left to bet this week.
Zak Cummings +270
Ryan Jimmo -350
Ryan Jimmo is a tough fighter who hasn’t lost a fight in four years, and that was in his first professional fight. Now he is 14-1 and MFC Light Heavyweight Champion. He’ll be in a fight with Zak Cummings; he took the fight on two weeks notice when Emanuel Newton suffered a shoulder injury. Cummings is a tough guy, but he likely will be betrayed by his condition as two weeks isn’t enough time to suitably train for a five round fight. I’m staying away from this one.
Curtis Demarce +245
Marcus Davis -345
This would be an absolute heart breaker for Marcus Davis to lose, and I’m betting he comes in ready to let his hands go and fight his heart out. Curtis is a good fighter, better than his 10-8 record would lead you to believe, but he’s not going to be a match for Marcus, who will land early and often and likely finish Demarce early. Don’t love the odds at -345, but he’ll win, so I’ll make a quick 10.00 by putting 34.50 on him. If Marcus Davis wins, we’ll get 44.50 back.
Robert Washington -120
Hermes Franca -110
I fully expect Robert Washington to win this fight. Hermes Franca is a wily veteran but lately he’s slipped and he’s again ripe to lose a high-profile fight. I like Washington, he’s an excellent wrestler and I think he has sharper standup than Franca as well. At -120, he’s worth dropping 44.00 to win 24.00. So if Robert wins, we’ll get 68.00 back from the sports betting sites. We’ve now spent got 119.00 left to bet with this week.
Demi Deeds +170
Pete Spratt -210
Spratt is 13-18 since starting his career 8-1. He’s had issues with submission defense and needs to stay on his feet to win this fight. Deeds has some decent hands, great take-downs and has won five of his last seven by, you guessed it, submission. I like Deeds here, and our 20.00 dollar bet will bring a total return of 54.00. We’ve got 99.00 left. Now it’s time to switch gears and look at Bellator.
Nick Thompson +335
Ben Askren -535
Ben Askren is an undefeated Bellator champion, who many fans feel is a solid substitute for sleeping pills. His last three fights have gone the distance, resulting in 11 rounds of uninspired fighting. Nick Thompson has wins over fighters like Eddie Alvarez, Paul Daley, Chris Wilson, Josh Neer, and Mark Weir. However, lately he’s been losing a lot, and has four of six and three in a row. He’s able, but I don’t see him surviving this fight with Askren. Askren will control him, toss him around and grind out a victory. I don’t love the -535 odds, so we’ll skip this one.
Brent Weedman +260
Jay Hieron -340
I think this fight is way closer than it appears. I think Weedman is the kind of fighter to give Hieron fits, and I actually think he’s going to win. I like the odds, and it’s worth putting 20.00 on to win 52.00. So a Weedman win brings us a healthy total of 72.00 back. This could be the fight of the night on the Bellator 40 card.
Lloyd Woodard +110
Michael Chandler -140
I like Lloyd in this fight, but when making bets, it is important to not bet with your heart, but rather your head. We at MMA Valor are a sponsor of Lloyd’s and I consider him a friend. So I won’t bet on him. If I was going to bet this fight however, I’d go with Woodard who has better hands and submissions.
Strikeforce has a big show, with four great fights on it. Let’s see if we want to make any bets.
Shinya Aoki -250
Lyle Beerbohm +190
I don’t think Shinya Aoki does well in the cage. He looked like a rookie when he faced Gilbert Melendez a year ago in Nashville. That said, there is a vast difference in talent between Gilbert Melendez and Lyle Beerbohm. I believe Beerbohm could win the fight, but Aoki’s submissions can’t be dismissed. I’m tempted to put something on Beerbohm here, but Aoki rises to the occasion and with the recent happenings in Japan, I think he can will himself to victory. I’m not betting this fight.
Gegard Mousasi -600
Keith Jardine +400
Keith Jardine has been in wars, against the best in the sport, and should not be +400 against a blown up middleweight here. Will Jardine win the fight? Not sure, but I do know he’s no pushover and will give Mousasi a fight. Now, I love Gegard Mousasi and I feel he’s an elite Middleweight, but isn’t as good a Light Heavyweight. I think Jardine can win this fight, and I love him at +400 against ANYONE not named Jon Jones. We’ll throw 20.00 on him to win 80.00. If the “Dean of Mean” can get the win, we’ll bring home a nice 100.00.
Gilbert Melendez -265
Tatsuya Kawajiri +205
This fight is one that I’ve been looking forward to for a long, long time. I love “Crusher” and I think he has a real chance to knock off Melendez. I get the feeling that Melendez is distracted with the recent Zuffa purchase of Strikeforce. I think he sees dollar signs, and bigger things ahead. The problem is when you take your eye off the ball, and that ball is as dangerous as Kawajiri….you can get hurt. I think this is the perfect storm for an upset, and I think Kawajiri TKOs Melendez. We’re putting 40.00 on this one, and we’ll win 82.00 plus get our 40.00 back. So, if Kawajiri gets the win, we’ll get 122.00 back.
Nick Diaz -225
Paul Daley +185
Nick Diaz never ceases to amaze me. I think he will handle Daley and send him packing, but at -225, I think I’ll let this one go. Daley is certainly capable of winning the fight, but Diaz is too crafty and I think he’ll submit Daley after a brief and dangerous exchange standing. I think these four fights will make for extraordinarily exciting fights, and could be the most exciting card of the year. Now, we’re going for the BIG LONGSHOT PARLAY of Weedman, Jardine and Kawajiri. All three must win for us to win. We’re betting 10.00 to win 510.00
Douglas Lima over Terry Martin 20.00 to win 50.00
Marcus Davis over Curtis Demarce 34.50 to win 44.50
Robert Washington over Hermes Franca 44.00 to win 68.00
Demi Deeds over Pete Spratt 20.00 to win 54.00
Brent Weedman over Jay Hieron 20.00 to win 72.00
Keith Jardine over Gegard Mousasi 20.00 to win 100.00
Tatsuya Kawajiri over Gilbert Melendez 40.00 to win 122.00
Parlay Brent Weedman, Keith Jardine, and Kawajiri 10.00 to win 510.00
Ok, we bet 210.00 dollars this week, with a chance of bringing in a whopping 1020.50
