Odds and Ends with Joey Oddessa
This is a debut piece here at MMAValor with the world renowned MMA and Boxing fight odds-maker Joey Oddessa. The idea behind these articles is to give a different look on the fights from a different angle. You’ll see that Oddessa’s Knowledge is very informative and he’s going to bring some extremely unique articles right here.
Coming off an impressive Bellator card I’m actually excited for a Strikeforce Card for the first time in a while.
I’m always of the mindset that that small events always turn into bad beats for bettors because of incompetent judges and the organizations lack of depth that often benefits the bigger name competitors on the scorecards. But this card is different. Three solid title bouts with a couple underdogs that actually have a reasonable shot at winning.
The main bout that interests me on this Strikeforce card isn’t the main event but rather the bout between Gegard Mousassi and King Mo Lawel. Gegard comes into this fight as a little over a 2-1 betting favorite. I’m not an MMA journalist so my breakdown will take more of a numbers approach in relation to the odds.
Looking at the history behind both fighters here, King Mo has not been a wagering underdog since his MMA debut that he won with ease over Travis Wiuff.
Whats striking to me is the to me is the difference that a few years really makes in terms of a guys career and public perception in relation to the numbers (wagering odds).
If you look back a few years ago, Gegard Mousassi was running near last in the future odds in a 16 man field in the odds to win the Pride Welterweight Grand Prix at near 40-1 odds. Mousassi followed up an opening round win coming in 3 months later as still a 28-1 long shot to win the tournament.
He failed the exceed the my expectations and lost as a 2-1 underdog to overall 10-1 tournament long shot Akihiro Gono who also went on to get eliminated from the tournament.
Then in 2008 Mousassi was a near 3-1 underdog to Denis Kang , who was carrying a ton of momentum, support, and pressure coming into the bout. That was the last time Mousassi was a wagering underdog and he won it. Since then he has rattled off over a dozen straight wins and has not been an underdog since.
So let me cut to the chase. I don’t think after Saturday night you will see Mo Lawel as a 2-1 underdog against anyone at light heavyweight.
If Sokoudjou can take Mousassi down and win a round, Mo Lawel can too. If Mo’s gas tank runs as good as his mouth, I can see Mo putting him on his back and keeping him there. I only hope the judges are competent enough to recognize who gets the better of the bout.
The Gilbert Melendez vs Shinya Aoki bout is the second bout that really grabs my attention. We see Aoki coming over in his USA on the heels of some great wins in Japan, but following a long list of Asian fighters that have looked average at best on US soil.
The thing is, no two fighters are the same, so I believe the wagering line is moving in Gilbert’s favor for the wrong reasons. Aoki has won in all his bouts as an underdog and he is in that role again. The players support of Melendez has flip flopped over the past couple years but they are really supporting Gilbert here.
If this bout was in Japan Aoki would be a solid favorite. Gilbert enters here as almost a 2-1 favorite and its just too high. You’re not going to see Aoki at plus money for a while no matter how this bout plays out.
There is a lot at stake here for the rankings in the 155 pound division and the public may get caught speeding here betting Melendez in what I think is another toss up bout.
Rounding out the title bouts are two fighters in Dan Henderson and Jake Shields that I have had a lot of success wagering on in the past. I’ll keep this simple. I don’t know how Jake wins this bout. Dan Henderson is perceived to be overpriced at nearly a 5-1 favorite by bettors, but they are still betting both sides of the fight. This tells me that despite the favorable odds on Jake Shields as a big underdog, players believe he wont get it done Saturday night and I’m with them.
Category: Betting, Exclusive, MMA, Strikeforce
About the Author (Author Profile)
My brain child is MMAValor, something I had wanted to do for a long time and finally it’s here. Been an MMA fan since TUF season one (play catch up all the time) and the obsession started to grow like a weed and as the sport grows so does the love for the sport. I’m a jack of all trades, a very organized person that rides an emotional roller coaster daily.Subscribe
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