The Betting Corner for UFC Live: Hardy vs. Lytle
It’s not often you get a free card with this many excellent match-ups, but the UFC has really outdone itself here. The only things you can hope for in a card this stacked is that a lot of these bouts end early, and that we all make some money on the side. So, check out my comparison betting odds for the night, as well as any prop bets that catch my eye, and increase that bankroll!
Chris Lytle -140
Dan Hardy +110
Props: Fight Goes Distance/Over, Lytle by KO
While it’s not a fight that will determine much in the grand scheme of the welterweight division, it’s certainly going to be entertaining. Lytle comes into this bout with talk of retirement on the horizon, but with the same grittiness that has seen him through war in the Octagon time and again. Hardy is the young buck here and will need to outlast the aging striker if he hopes to snap his losing streak. Hardy is perhaps the more technical kickboxer of the two, but often times Lytle’s aggression overcomes any disparity in technique, making this a very close fight. The value here for me is that this turns into a brawl and neither man can land clean, thereby going late into the fight. With that said, this is a dangerous fight to bet and I’d think hard on that prop line before wagering.
Jim Miller -160
Benson Henderson +130
Props: Fight Ends Inside Distance/Under
Is this a number one contender fight? I couldn’t tell you, but I know it’s going to be a good fight no matter what. Miller and Henderson come into this with a blended wrestling and BJJ game that has done them well in their career thus far. The main difference between the two is in Miller’s boxing skills and ability to hold position in the grappling game, which should allow him to take this fight. As for a finish though, this is anyone’s guess and makes this one more appealing to watch than to bet.
Donald Cerrone
Donald Cerrone -125
Charles Oliveira -110
Props: Fight Goes Distance/Over
This is a fight that has had me torn for some time. On one hand, I feel that Cerrone’s decision to train at his ranch has been a detriment to his striking skills, as his defensive abilities have suffered for time spent with inexperienced fighters. On the other hand, he has proven himself to be difficult to hurt, eager to engage, and smart enough to land takedowns to steal close rounds. This could be a razor-close fight, and it’s one where I think Cerrone will win an unpopular decision due to forward movement and token takedowns. While there is danger of a submission stoppage on the mat, the value here should be on this fight going late, as both men work their striking skills for the duration of the bout.
Amir Sadollah -185
Duane Ludwig +145
Props: Fight Goes Distance/Over, Sadollah by Submission
Just in case Cerrone vs. Oliveira didn’t have enough kickboxing for you, we have a welterweight scrap between Amir Sadollah and Duane Ludwig as well. This has fireworks potential, but also huge betting potential due to Ludwig’s credentials in the striking game, vs Sadollah’s relative inexperience. Make no mistake, Sadollah is the much larger and more technically sound of the two here, and comes into this with the added bonus of an effective ground game. This is entirely Sadollah’s fight to control, and there could be value in all directions here once lines open. My golden triangle here would be Sadollah straight, the Over, and Sadollah by Submission to cover nearly all bases, with perhaps a small play on Ludwig by KO if it’s at outrageous odds.
CB Dollaway -240
Jared Hamman +180
Props: Dollaway by Submission, Fight Goes Distance/Over
A trip down to middleweight might have bought Jared Hamman another UFC fight, but he draws a murderous opponent in submission grappling specialist CB Dollaway. Hamman has heavy hands, strong cardio and tenacity, which are all traits that make him a killer against lesser competition, but he comes up a bit short in this style of fight. The big question will be if Hamman’s size and takedown defense can stop Dollaway in his tracks, or if Dollaway will just run him over on the mat. I’d recommend the Hammer and Anvil here with props, as you’re unlikely to find decent odds on Dollaway straight. Using the Over as your anvil, bet that Dollaway locks up a submission in this fight at a decent + number.
Joseph Benavidez -185
Eddie Wineland +145
Props: Benavidez by Submission, Fight Goes Distance/Over
A sleeper fight of the night, Team Alpha Male’s Joseph Benavidez will fight former Bantamweight Champion, Eddie Wineland. Wineland is a dark horse in this division, as he brings underrated takedown defense, as well as razor-sharp striking skills to this fight, and could give Benavidez everything he can handle here. Our benchmark for this fight is Faber vs. Wineland, where Faber had issue with takedowns, but managed to win the striking exchanges late in the fight. Benavidez is a better takedown artist than Faber, and should be able to make this fight his own with fast double legs and potentially a submission. The line on this fight could be borderline ridiculous, and I urge caution in wasting money on Benavidez if that value isn’t there. The smartest wager here, provided Benavidez line is out of reach, would be betting the Over, as either man could stall this fight into late rounds.
Kyle Noke -160
Ed Herman +130
Props: None
Another sleeper fight of the night, the dangerous Aussie Kyle Noke will take on TUF veteran Ed Herman as they work their way up the Middleweight ladder. Both men are heavy-handed grapplers, with Herman’s Team Quest wrestling pairing well with Noke’s BJJ, but this fight is one likely to play out on the feet. In that realm, I have to give an edge to Noke and his varied striking arsenal, with his heavy emphasis on body shots and multi-level kicking. Betting wise, this is a fight I’d feel leery of picking props on, as either guy can KO, sub or decision the other. It’s straight bet or nothing for me, so watch that line and pull the trigger wisely.
Karlos Vemola
Karlos Vemola -185
Ronny Markes +145
Props: Fight Ends Inside Distance/Under
The human and gorilla hybrid that is Karlos Vemola faces Brazilian striker Ronny Markes. Vemola is a crude fighter at best, but his sure physical presence and aggression make him murder against the wrong opponent. While I’m not entirely sure Markes is the wrong opponent as such, he does bring sharp striking that can be used to stun the charging Vemola, making this a KO waiting to happen for either man. This is perhaps the best fight to wager on for the night, as Vemola will live or die by the sword here. Betting the Under ensures you’re on the right side of the action, although keep an eye on the rounds your sportbook puts out there and make sure you get at least 1 1/2 rounds.
Cole Miller -300
TJ O’Brien +220
Props: None
Coming off a brutal pounding at the hands of Matt Wiman, Cole Miller will work his way back up the ladder, taking on the unenviable TJ O’Brien. This is a classic example of two fighters who are almost identical, but with one being a better version of the other, as Miller has a wealth of experience against proven competition. A real X-factor here is also that Miller’s brother Micah is also a pro-fighter with a very similar style to O’Brien, giving him a huge training edge here. While I doubt you’ll find much value here, Miller is the clearest-cut favorite on the card in my mind to outclass O’Brien every step of the way.
Jacob Volkmann -130
Danny Castillo EV
Props: Castillo by KO
A fight that sounds better and better to me all the time, underrated grappler Jacob Volkmann will face off against Team Alpha Male’s Danny Castillo. Volkmann is still a bit green in the MMA world, but his submission grappling skills are more than enough to put Castillo away if he can make this a ground battle. That’s usually easier said than done against Castillo though, as his sprawl and brawl tactics have undone other wrestlers who sought to pull him into their world. This is a close fight due to Volkmann’s hybrid grappling and Castillo’s strength and punching power, and a straight line won’t do you much good here. The best bet here is one of a Castillo KO, as he’s not likely to win this any other way.
Edwin Figueroa -200
Jason Reinhardt +160
Props: Fight Ends Inside Distance/Under
In a Loser Leaves Town-style fight, Edwin Figueroa will put it on the line against gritty veteran fighter Jason Reinhardt in what’s sure to be a quick fight. Figueroa made his debut against Bantamweight wonder Michael MacDonald in a FOTN performance, and while the fight didn’t go his way, he proved himself to be a tough customer just the same. Reinhardt, on the other hand, has been winless in the UFC across two weight classes, and will make one last attempt at 135lbs here. While most folks are sold on this being a lock for Figueroa, I’m not going to completely count Reinhardt out here. While Reinhardt is far behind the bell-curve of today’s MMA superstars, his belief in himself and utterly fearless approach are enough to shake a young man like Figueroa. One way or another, this fight ends before the bell, and that makes for the best bet in my mind.
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About the Author (Author Profile)
I'm a 20+ year veteran of martial arts and a fan of MMA since UFC 1, when my world was thrown on its head by the budding sport. I'm obsessive in the pursuit of martial abilities and have competed across the country in everything from Vale Tudo to archery to Scottish broadsword. Once my body broke down, I picked up a pen and went in the direction of writing. I specialize in betting advice, predictions, and I'm a walking encyclopedia of MMA trivia. I own a cafe in Exeter, NH called Hammersmith Sandwich Company and write out of my office between customers.Subscribe
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