UFC 191 Betting Preview
UFC 191 is one of those upcoming events that I am saying a lot of dog or pass situations. On the main card, we have three fights with the underdog at +400 or higher. The fight capping off the televised prelims has the underdog sitting at +300. In my opinion, most of these matches aren’t near as much of mismatches as the odds dictate. I think we’ll be able to find some value here, but it’s an event to play small as I’m not finding many “safe” bets.
Demetrious Johnson vs. Jon Dodson
The main event has a rematch between Mighty Mouse and Jon Dodson. Their first fight was over two and a half years ago, but odds have nearly doubled here on Dodson. It’s interesting because the Dodson vs. Johnson fight was a lot closer than people like to remember. Most remember the last couple rounds of Johnson taking over. Not many remember that Dodson took the first two rounds on two of the judges scorecards and most media scorecards. Dodson showed that his ability to match Mighty Mouse’s speed mattered quite a bit. It opened up counters for Dodson and forced Mighty Mouse to stand more than he wanted. If Dodson would have held his pace, I definitely feel he had a good shot of hanging one more round. Dodson has openly admitted his cardio wasn’t prepared and that is something he’d fix.
To be fair, it’s clear Mighty Mouse has looked better than Dodson since that fight. His level of improvement has been very noticeable, but I think this remains one of this toughest matchups stylistically. The athleticism and speed of Dodson is a huge factor to overcome as Mighty Mouse is almost always the faster and more athletic fighter. With Dodson’s big power and a legit likelihood that he can take three rounds, he’s the proper play at +400.