The Betting Corner: Strikeforce Rockhold vs. Jardine

While the Strikeforce/Zuffa/Showtime love triangle is still playing out before our eyes, we’re treated to a great night of action, complete with title fights and rising MMA stars. I have to admit, this isn’t going to be an easy card to turn a hearty profit on, but if you line up your parlays just right, you can still walk away a winner here.

I’ve added a new stat to my comparison betting odds and valid props to help you with your wagers as well; The Confidence Meter! *dun-dun-dun-duuuun* This is a measure of two things primarily, those being the amount of information on each fighter to base my decision off of, and the amount of variables in a fight. Fights with a Low confidence rating mean there are several variables or inadequate video available on one or both fighters. This gives you an idea of how much wiggle room my line has, or how safe a fight is as a parlay option. High confidence means I’m very well versed with both fighters and that there are few surprises in store, making that a solid line and a parlay player. Of course, any questions on my articles can be directed to me on twitter @Mikehammersmith. Now, onto the fights!

Luke Rockhold -500

Keith Jardine +350

Props: Rockhold Inside

Confidence: Extremely High

Luke Rockhold will make the first and possibly last defense of the Strikeforce Middleweight title, taking on an unlikely foe in newly-minted Middleweight Keith Jardine.

Bare with me here, because I have to make a point before I get into this fight. I love Keith Jardine. He’s a unique fighter, a good person and is never in a boring fight. With that said, he’s the most functionally messed up fighter on the planet, and it’s all Jackson Submission Fight’s fault. Jackson’s calling card has always been that they develop your style, rather than force you to fight a particular way. While this has obviously worked in the past considering their tremendous roster, Keith Jardine and Leonard Garcia are two experiments gone terribly wrong. While the premise makes sense, some fighters naturally need structure or they’ll develop a pile of horrible habits. Jardine is an example of this, as a style that was originally “quirky” and allowed him to fight Stephen Bonnar and Chuck Liddell to a stand-still has dissolved into something where he can’t land a solid punch on the dregs of MMA.

Taking all that into account, Jardine comes into this fight with a non-functioning fighting style as an untested Middleweight, where his only real out would be a KO. This realistically isn’t a winnable fight for Jardine, and with his secret weapon being his underrated wrestling, he’ll be shooting blanks all night here. I imagine the odds will be painful for this one, but Rockhold showed he has heavy hands and feet even late into a fight, plus his slick submission arsenal. It’s Rockhold ITD here, as he picks Jardine apart early and scores the win.

Robbie Lawler -300

Adlan Amagov +220

Props: Fight Doesn’t start 2nd round, Lawler by KO

Confidence: Very High

With two impressive wins in Strikeforce, Adlan Amagov will be given a ridiculous step up in competition, taking on veteran fighter Robbie Lawler. Amagov brings a unique skill set to the cage with his sambo background, unorthodox striking style and underrated athletic ability. While Amagov has done fairly well for himself thus far though, Lawler is a monster at this weight with the far superior striking ability and true one punch power. While Amagov’s use of sambo/judo takedowns might take some adjustment for Lawler, I can’t see this hitting the ground very often. Count on this fighting ending up as a blood bath, resulting in a Lawler KO in the 1st.

Muhammad Lawal -400

Lorenz Larkin +300

Props: Fight Goes Distance/Over

Confidence: High

Former LHW champion Muhammad Lawal will take on spectacular fighting prospect Lorenzo Larkin in another mismatched fight. Lawal comes into this fight off a stunning KO of Roger Gracie and with a clean bill of health. Larkin came into Strikeforce out of nowhere as a late replacement against Scott Lighty and hasn’t looked back, but he’ll be hard-pressed to get the job done against King Mo. It’s a fairly easy fight to call as Larkin’s takedown defense isn’t worth mentioning, and Lawal is incredibly difficult to shake off for even seasoned grapplers. While Larkin should have the sense to stay safe on the mat and stall as much as possible, Lawal should have this one by decision in a dominant fight.

Tyron Woodley -150

Jordan Mein +120

Props: Fight Goes Distance/Over

Confidence: Moderate

Strikeforce staple Tyron Woodley faces new sensation Jordan Mein in what could be the best fight of the evening. While SF might convince you that Woodley is unstoppable, those who don’t drink the kool-aid will see that Woodley has been a bit of a flop thus far in his career. With wrestling that is quickly becoming insufficient for his level of competition, issues with his gas tank, and few other skills to back everything up. Mein looks to be a Rory MacDonald with less grappling and better stand-up, using the same youthful enthusiasm and pure fighting instinct to destroy opponents. Woodley has the skills to put this on the mat, provided Mein hasn’t made leaps in his takedown defense since his last few fights.  While the straight line could be risky, the Over seems like a safe bet, as Mein can stall and survive on the mat or win on points if Woodley can’t get this on the mat.

Tarec Saffiedine -140

Tyler Stinson +110

Props: Stinson by KO

Confidence: Moderate

A classic bout between a power puncher and an elusive point fighter always makes for an exciting addition to a card. Saffiedine brings one of the most dynamic striking games you’ll ever see into the cage, and is a real treat if you’ve never seen him operate before. His opponent is a bit less flair and a lot more power though, as Stinson has cut a swath through the US in his career, and finally looks to be breaking into the big time. This is going to be a tense fight, as neither guy cares much for mat work, and Saffiedine will look to circle and strike as he avoids Stinson’s thundering punches. While Saffiedine, on paper, should win this one on points, Stinson’s height and power could make this a quick night if Saffiedine over extends himself. Keep an eye on the lines here, as I feel Saffiedine will come in well overvalued and could set up a great dog bet on Stinson.

Tags: Adlan Amagov, Betting Corner, Jordan Mein, Keith Jardine, Lorenz Larkin, Luke Rockhold, Mixed Martial Arts, MMA, MMA Betting, Muhammed Lawal, Props, Robbie Lawler, Strikeforce, Strikeforce: Rockhold vs. Jardine, Tarec Saffiedine, Tyler Stinson, Tyron Woodley

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