MMA Betting Futures: Jose Aldo

| February 6, 2013 | 2:50 pm | Reply

MMA Betting Futures Jose AldoA year away from the cage and an elite challenger to shake it off is a daunting task for any fighter, but at UFC 156, Jose Aldo looked beyond ready. Facing former Lightweight champion Frankie Edgar at 145 lbs, Aldo proved to not only be the faster fighter, but his precision striking and takedown defense were on point like never before. While Edgar had his moments and made it a fight, Aldo’s laser-like jab and counter striking turned his opponent’s face to a bloody mess for most of the fight, taking a well-earned unanimous decision.

With a year on the bench though, the line of potential opponents is long indeed and many interesting fights are lined up for our Featherweight champion. Let’s take a look at the line of contenders knocking on the door and their potential chances from a betting perspective.

Jose Aldo vs. Frankie Edgar 2

Aldo -150

Edgar +120

We’re well aware of the UFC having a hard on for immediate rematch, and with such a close fight, it would seem the UFC may ignore the backlog of contenders and send Edgar into his 4th immediate rematch fight in his career. The fight was indeed close, coming down to the 3rd round on the majority of media and fan score cards, yet the champion received the nod almost universally.

Looking at a rematch, you have to look at what would be different, and I’d have to say that very little would change. The speed factor in this fight was apparent with the rapid exchanges between the two combatants and I don’t feel Edgar will be able to bridge that gap meaningfully. There was also an apparent edge in the boxing skills of Aldo that will be hard to bridge as well considering the amount of gym time both have put into their respective craft. While Edgar has potential to work a more ferocious wrestling game in a rematch, Aldo has the reflexes to launch a counter KO or outright shut Edgar down.  A rematch plays out similar to the first bout, with Aldo being that much better in the striking exchanges and holding onto his title by decision.

Jose Aldo vs. Anthony Pettis

Aldo -140

Pettis +110

Fresh off his spectacular win over gritty veteran Donald Cerrone, Pettis is waiting in line for a shot at the lightweight title. Yet, a text message to Dana White following Aldo’s fight indicated Pettis might be willing to jump down to featherweight for an immediate title shot if the opportunity presented itself.  An interesting proposition for sure, and one that has the MMA world buzzing, as Pettis made it clear he wants to be a dual title holder.

Pettis brings a great deal of pros, but also several cons into this potential match-up. In his favor, he’s a devastating striker with supreme confidence in his abilities and an ability to mix attacks like no one else in the game. Going against him is this being his first cut to FW, a stance that isn’t made for highly mobile opponents, and his sole weakness in his career being strong boxers. This is the toughest fight for Aldo out there, but I give the champ a slight edge in his ability to remain mobile while crippling the younger fighter with leg kicks and being the better counter puncher, leading to a TKO midway into the fight.

Jose Aldo vs. Ricardo Lamas

Aldo -185

Lamas +145

With Lamas vs. Koch being a possible number one contender fight, Lamas made his statement in bold fashion. A short feeling out process with the vicious striker ended with Lamas opening his opponent’s face with a series of slashing elbows and forcing a stoppage before the fight really even started. With Koch out-of-the-way, Lamas asked for the title shot, and depending on how other scenarios pan out, he might just get it.

Lamas isn’t that different from Frankie Edgar, with both using a seamless offensive style; Mixing wrestling and striking to great effect. The main difference between the two would be Lamas heavier use of kicks, which could help him or hurt him in a bout with Aldo, as Edgar’s kicks were more effective than anything else the former LW champion used. Overall, Lamas doesn’t have the wrestling to threaten Aldo, doesn’t have any size advantage, and his kicking attacks would be a crap shoot at best here, making his chances much more slim than he’d like.

Jose Aldo vs. Cub Swanson 2

Aldo -185

Swanson +145

Famous for being in Jose Aldo’s highlight reel in their first encounter, Swanson has rebounded tremendously since their bout in WEC. Facing a sea of harsh opponents since that eight second KO loss, Swanson has seldom seen defeat and put together an exceptional win streak as of late, taking George Roop, Ross Pearson and Charles Oliveira out in impressive fashion. With a win over Dustin Poirier, Swanson could potentially jump the line and find his way to a title shot with his old foe.

Swanson is one of the most hot and cold fighters in the sport, but has maintained his edge as of late.  A talent in every aspect of the fight, there isn’t an area Aldo can rest easy in as Swanson can find a finish.  Even a red-hot Swanson would have issue with Aldo’s blazing offense though, and a less than perfect Swanson would be destroyed just as fast as he was first time out. While Swanson has a great shot to hurt Aldo with his long straight punching, Aldo is far more likely to snipe him coming in and grab another win.

Jose Aldo vs. Dustin Poirier

Aldo -240

Poirier +190

Standing opposite Cub Swanson in his next fight will be Dustin Poirier, a fighter just as famous for a myriad of MMA documentaries as he is for his in cage presence.  A sharp striker with a deadly BJJ game, Poirier made himself known to the masses when he dismantled Josh Grispi in what was supposed to be Grispi’s tune-up fight. While he suffered a loss to Chan Sung Jung in a spirited bout, his rebound against Jonathan Brookins made him look like a million bucks. A win over Swanson puts him right into title contention provided none of the above scenarios pan out.

I like Poirier a lot, but his striking style would see him beaten badly against Aldo, as he uses slower volume punching versus Aldo’s ripping power strikes. While Poirier could conceivably find a rhythm early and stick with it to beat Aldo, he would need the perfect fight to do so, and I can’t see it happening.  Without the tools to make this a ground fight, Poirier is battered and broken by the Featherweight title holder.

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Category: Betting, MMA, Opinion, UFC

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My brain child is MMAValor, something I had wanted to do for a long time and finally it’s here. Been an MMA fan since TUF season one (play catch up all the time) and the obsession started to grow like a weed and as the sport grows so does the love for the sport. I’m a jack of all trades, a very organized person that rides an emotional roller coaster daily.

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