The Betting Corner: UFC 133 Evans vs. Ortiz 2
This has to be the most broken card in UFC history, having lost two main events, a co-main event and four undercard fights, but the show goes on. Whether you want to drop PPV money on a main event like Rashad Evans vs. Tito Ortiz 2 or not is up to you, but you might as well make some cash off this card.
It’s a tricky one for betting but there’s value to be had here, so check out my comparison betting odds and valid prop bets for this event.
Rashad Evans -500
Tito Ortiz +350
Props: Evans Inside Distance
Ortiz cost me a fortune last time out, but don’t expect lightning to strike twice for the former champion here. Despite a layoff and another opponent change, Evans has been training to fight a wrestler this entire time, and should have sharp takedown defense for this fight. My only question is Evan’s mental game after being shuffled around so much, as well as training with a new camp, but everything should line up for an Evans win here. Don’t expect Ortiz to make it to the final bell, as Evans lands furious combinations and finishes with ground and pound early.
Vitor Belfort -240
Yoshihiro Akiyama +180
Props: Fight Ends Inside Distance, Belfort by KO
While he might have been finished in spectacular fashion against Anderson Silva, Belfort is still a deadly striker in this division, and has a chance at redemption against Akiyama. Akiyama is certainly dangerous in his own right, but a lack of finishing skills and wilting gas tank make him a gimmie at the higher levels of competition. This could be a bloodbath, but as Akiyama’s defensive movement slows to nothing, Belfort’s hand should decisively win this fight for him. Betting wise this is going to be a tough nut to crack, but I really don’t see this going the distance. Betting on an early finish and a Belfort KO makes for an opportunity for some real cash, and a bit of damage control if Akiyama makes it into the 3rd round.
Dennis Hallman -120
Brian Ebersole -120
Props: Fight Goes Distance
An interesting pairing of old school grapplers makes for a betting nightmare, as the rock solid submission grappling of Dennis Hallman collides with the unorthodox Brian Ebersole. I’d pick Hallman every time here if I knew he was physically and mentally ready for this fight, but as someone who has had issue throughout their career with diet and mental conditioning, it’s always a crapshoot to lay money on him. With that said, I think the best wager here is to take the Over or bet this fight goes the distance, as Hallman should be able to shut Ebersole down, but both will avoid the submission.
Jorge Rivera -160
Constantinos Philippou +130
Props: None
The latest in a string of injuries, Alessio Sakara was forced out of this fight, making for a shuffling of the undercards to make this main card fight. This is a big change of opponents for Rivera, as Philippou fights nothing like Sakara and makes for a dangerous short-term fight for the aging slugger. Rivera does bring a great deal of experience to this fight though, and has rarely been tripped up by anything but the best grapplers, putting the ball in his court here. I would be reluctant to bet this fight unless something strange happens with the odds, so save your cash for something a bit more lucrative.
Mike Pyle -130
Rory MacDonald EV
Props: Fight Goes Distance/Over, Pyle by Submission
One of the most interesting prospects to come along in some time, Rory MacDonald gets yet another step up in competition, facing long time Xtreme Couture fighter Mike Pyle. Pyle is always trouble when betting, as his willingness to accept bottom positions and a questionable chin have made him an easy target in the past. Conversely, Pyle seems to have an affinity for beating other lanky fighters like John Hathaway and Dan Hornbuckle, making this a dangerous fight for MacDonald on paper. While I think Pyle takes this by a narrow margin, I think the real value is in a Hammer and Anvil tactic, betting heavy on the fight going the distance/Over and laying down on Pyle submitting MacDonald off his back.
Alexander Gustafsson -200
Matt Hamill +160
Props: Fight Gustafsson by Decision
Eager to get back into action following his loss to Quinton Jackson, Matt Hamill makes a quick turn-around to face Alexander Gustafsson. When it comes right down to it, Gustafsson is a bad match-up for Hamill due to his takedown defense and huge reach, making this a valuable fight at the right odds. While Gustafsson could get a KO here, I think the real value might be in Gustafsson taking a decision, as Hamill tends to retreat smartly when hurt. Gustafsson should control this fight from the onset, and the outcome depends on how bold Hamill wants to be here, but don’t expect any heroics.
Mendes is favored over Yahya
Chad Mendes -240
Rani Yahya +180
Props: Fight Ends Inside Distance
Team Alpha Male’s brightest new star, Chad Mendes was swept under the rug for a title shot, but will look to reassert himself with a win over Yahya. While my comparison odds don’t look anything like the real lines, I’d like to urge caution on this fight, as the green Mendes has shown a willingness to play inside the guard of dangerous competition. While Yahya might not be the most well-rounded fighter, he is one of the best BJJ stylists you’ll find at Featherweight, and could easily catch Mendes if he over-extends himself. I don’t see this fight lasting long, as either Mendes plasters Yahya with his stand-up and ground and pound, or finds himself on the defensive on the mat for a submission win by Yahya. With Mendes odds being fairly ridiculous, bet the inside here and hope someone finishes early.
Ivan Menjivar -240
Nick Pace +180
Props: Fight Goes Distance
An old school fighter that’s seen a resurgence in a new weight class, Ivan Menjivar will look to capitalize on his last win against dark match veteran Nick Pace. Pace has had two tough fights in his WEC/UFC career thus far, and will face someone well-equipped to defeat him here. Menjivar has an edge everywhere this fight goes, and unless Pace can work an outside striking game plan, he should find himself on the wrong end of a decision here.
Johny Hendricks -130
Mike Pierce EV
Props: None
One of the toughest fights of the night to call, two heavy-handed wrestlers will face off in an attempt to crack the top of the division. The bout depends entirely on game plans and whoever can land their power first, as both men are much better offensive fighters than defensive, leaving plenty of openings to snake in power punches. While Pierce shouldn’t be counted out here, Hendricks has a slight edge in wrestling, and should be able to hold position on Piece and win the dirty boxing exchanges for a TKO or decision win. Betting wise, this one isn’t worth the risk unless you find wide odds.
Mike Brown -140
Nam Phan +110
Props: Fight Goes Distance
Trying to arrest a horrendous backslide due to personal and training issues, former WEC Featherweight champion Mike Brown has his back to the wall here. His opponent is no pushover though, as he draws TUF contestant Nam Phan in one of the most explosive fights of the night. Phan and Brown are similar in that they’re well-rounded with expert level grappling and boxing skills, and should match up nicely here. This is a dangerous one to put money on due to Brown’s recent problems and Phan’s potential growth off of his stint on the show. With that said, I have to favor the wrestling of Brown here to take close rounds and give him the decision win.
Rafael Natal -150
Paul Bradley +120
Props: Bradley by Decision
The last of our late replacement fights, ousted TUF cast member Paul Bradley finally makes his way into the Octagon, taking on Rafael Natal in an intriguing match-up. Bradley hasn’t really evolved beyond an ultra-strong wrestler, but Natal has had issues with this kind of fight in the past as well, making it a closely contested bout. I have to side with Natal’s BJJ and powerful striking skills to end this fight before the final bell, but the best wager might be taking Bradley by decision. Coming off of a fight, Bradley will still have plenty of gas in the tank against a fighter who is notorious for a lack of conditioning, and makes for a smart wager to take this one the scorecards.
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