UFC 143: Diaz vs. Condit Betting Corner

Sorry GSP, but this fight is better than anything you’ve done in five years. While Canada’s sweetheart rehabs his knee, two of the grittiest fighters in the sports history will tear themselves apart for a piece of the title as Nick Diaz faces Carlos Condit at UFC 143. If that wasn’t enough of a reason to grab this PPV, the awesome wager potential on this card should seal the deal for you.

So, check out my comparison betting odds, valid prop bets and my general confidence in the outcome of this fight so we can all cash in. Now, onto the fights!

Nick Diaz -200

Carlos Condit +160

Props: Diaz ITD, FOTN

Confidence: High

While this isn’t the fight I actually wanted to bet on (Condit would have finished GSP and been a gold mine) it’s still a great bout to watch. Diaz is coming into this fight having soundly defeated BJ Penn in something resembling a pure boxing match and no one seems to have the formula to beat him yet.  Condit himself is on a tear in the UFC thus far, and with his title shot being taken away due to GSP’s injury, he’ll be coming into this bout fired up. The one and only thing that’s ever given Diaz an issue is wrestling, and if Nate’s performance against Cerrone is an indication, this is something he might have finally fixed. In a striking and clinch bout, Condit simply doesn’t pack the bone-shattering power you need to rattle Diaz and eventually he’ll have to succumb to the ridiculous volume punches. This fight could pay out a boatload if you can find Diaz at a decent line, FOTN as a given, and then Diaz ITD. With proven five round cardio and an ability to tear up the sturdiest of opponents, I don’t see Condit lasting farther than the 4th round; making those Diaz in 4th or 5th plays potential winners as well.

Fabricio Werdum -200

Roy Nelson +160

Props: Werdum by Decision

Confidence: High

While his style has never been impressive, Fabricio Werdum is still a top HW, and finds himself back in the UFC fold. His opponent is the incredible shrinking Roy Nelson, who will hopefully be finding his way to LHW soon enough, but takes a dangerous bout in the mean time. Nelson is fairly likable, but as another in a line of guys with “incredible heart” and little else, he doesn’t seem to stand a chance against Werdum. My one and only hang up here is that Werdum tends to come up with some positively terribly game plans, and getting caught with an overhand by Nelson is never fun. With that said, I think Werdum takes this handily with his boxing and takedowns, but I don’t believe he can finish Nelson before the bell.

Josh Koscheck -240

Mike Pierce +190

Props: Koscheck by Decision, Pierce KOTN

Confidence: Moderate

Despite talking up a move to MW, Koscheck is staying at 170 lbs. for now and facing fellow wrestler Mike Pierce. Pierce has established himself as a mid-grade wrestler with heavy hands, and while he’s spent most of his time in the prelims, he’s still put quite a few wins together. The problem is that he’s struggled against superior wrestlers, and Koscheck is most certainly that. Both men bring heavy hands into the fight, but the chances of either getting a KO punch off are slim as they tend to fall into clinch and wrestling situations. With Pierce being a bit stronger in the clinch and having the better short-range punches, I see Koscheck hanging back here and firing off his power doubles, turning this bout into a top control game for Koscheck. This could be a hard one to find value on, but Koscheck by Decision could pay out at a nice positive. If the odds are ridiculously skewed in Koscheck’s favor though, feel free to lay down a flier on Pierce by KO.

Renan Barao -150

Scott Jorgensen +120

Props: FOTN

Confidence: Moderate

While the title is being held hostage by the upcoming TUF 15, Barao and Jorgensen appear to be fighting for a number 2 contender spot, and makes for one of the most exciting bouts on the card. Barao is riding a wave of success so far, and looked positively amazing against hard-nosed slugger Brad Pickett.  Despite this, there are still questions about his overall game and ability to defeat a top-level wrestler.  Jorgensen brings fast footwork, smart offense, and inventive takedowns into this fight, and makes for a firm test for the Brazilian. While it’s hard to think of anyone arresting Barao’s momentum at this point, Jorgensen’s smart top game and lunging punches could actually pull it off. I’m willing to bet Barao’s line will be out of reach here, but a small play on FOTN combined with the FOTN play on Diaz vs. Condit makes for a great hedge.

Ed Herman -500

Clifford Starks +350

Props: Fight Ends Inside The Distance/Under

Confidence: Very High

Ed Herman has had a hell of a time the last two years, but with his knee finally healed up and a win under his belt, he’s set to work his way back into the middleweight mix. His opponent is someone brought in to lose to Dustin Jacoby, but who inconveniently won that fight, as Starks brings rudimentary skills to the cage with no space for improvement at this level. This is some of the easiest money you’ll ever see on a UFC card, as Starks has nothing but takedowns, and not even great ones at that. Herman should handily defeat him via submission and make for a great parlay player.

Dustin Poirier -260

Max Holloway +200

Props: Fight Ends Inside The Distance, Poirier inside first round

Confidence: Moderate

Rising featherweight fighter Dustin Poirier once again steps into the cage, taking on his 3rd replacement opponent in newcomer Max Holloway. For those unfamiliar, Holloway comes to us from Hawaii and has made a name for himself as an aggressive striker. Having fought in both the featherweight and lightweight divisions, Holloway is taking a tremendous step up in competition here, but the game fighter could be successful with this gamble. My issue with Holloway is that he’s fine with taking a punch to give one back, but lacks real KO power. Taking a Poirier punch has never proven to be a wise career move, and I can easily see the slick hands of Poirier finding his opponent’s chin early. The above two props make for big money potential and cover a Holloway upset, as his best chance is an early finish.

Alex Caceres -185

Edwin Figueroa +145

Props: None

Confidence: Moderate

Alex Caceres is confusing fighter all around; he brings a ton of natural ability and exactly zero fight planning into his bouts. Using his exciting striking style and mat work, he makes for a rough match-up for the bottom of the division, and could well rack up another win against Figueroa here. Figueroa himself is a solid striker, but his lack of mat ability will make him a target for as long as his UFC career lasts. My line above represents Caceres fighting a marginally intelligent fight of strikes and takedowns with his submission skills on display. This is a risky play though, so proceed with caution.

Matt Brown -185

Chris Cope +145

Props: Brown ITD

Confidence: High

In what could be a highly entertaining bout between two lunatics (I mean that in a good way of course), Matt Brown will face TUF 13′s Chris Cope in a kickboxing bloodbath. Brown has had an up and down UFC career, but his ability to constantly entertain makes this a must see bout, especially considering he’s likely to put Cope away here. Cope, while he looked decent on TUF 13, is simply not fit for the UFC and will find himself playing the tough kickboxer against the king of tough kickboxers. Unless Cope has made dramatic improvement, Brown should mop the floor with him, and I expect a late TKO for the JG fighter.

Raphael Natal -200

Michael Kuiper +160

Props: None

Confidence: Low

In an intriguing fight, BJJ ace and heavy-handed slugger Raphael Natal will welcome Michael Kuiper to the UFC. For those unfamiliar, Kuiper is a Dutch judoka turned BJJ stylist turned MMA fighter. He brings the naturally heavy hands of a judo player and some impressive no-gi judo and BJJ offense, but lacks any real polish on his strikes or ability to hold position in a grappling match. This doesn’t bode well for him against Natal, who has similar striking power, but has had more time to refine that skill, and brings a high level of BJJ acumen to this fight. My concern here is that Kuiper does fight a lot like Bongfeldt with his use of functional strength grappling techniques, but I expect Natal to have worked on his own sweep defense and positioning since that fight. Not a safe fight to bet on mind you, but Natal should take this fight by early KO or in a drawn out grappling match.

Dan Stittgen -185

Stephen Thompson +145

Props: Thompson by KO

Confidence: Low

It’s not often that the most interesting bout of the night is also the curtain jerker, but here you have it.  Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson will make his big show debut after a lifetime as a top-level point fighter and kick boxer, facing barbarian fighter Dan Stittgen. This is the kind of match-up that makes my old MMA heart happy, because it’s reminiscent of the early style vs. style fights, with Thompson the karate guy, taking on the relentless brawler in Stittgen. That’s not to say that Stittgen isn’t talented, but his greatest attribute is his pacing and constant forward pressure, making this a troublesome fight for Thompson. Right off the bat, Thompson is going to find himself stuck up against the fence and unable to launch his KO strikes at his accustomed range. While Stittgen, on paper, shouldn’t be able to win this fight, his ability and willingness to steal Thompson’s spacing makes this all but over before it starts.  Betting wise I can’t guess where the line will be, but Thompson’s only chance is to land a KO in this fight, making Thompson KO and Stittgen straight a potential arb to kick off your fight night.

Tags: Alex Caceres, Betting Corner, Carlos Condit, Chris Cope, Clifford Starks, Dan Stittgen, Dustin Poirier, Ed Herman, Edwin Figueroa, Fabricio Werdum, Josh Koscheck, Matt Brown, Max Holloway, Michael Kuiper, Mike Pierce, MMA, Nick Diaz, Raphael Natal, Renan Barao, Roy Nelson, Scott Jorgensen, Stephen Thompson, UFC, UFC 143, UFC 143 Odds, UFC 143: Diaz vs. Condit

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