The UFC Live 6: Cruz vs. Johnson Betting Corner

| September 25, 2011 | 6:14 pm | 1 Reply

The UFC has been cranking out fight cards like crazy, and the UFC Live 6 is one I can really get excited about from a betting standpoint. Title fights, old rivalries and competitive matchups galore await us, and there’s plenty of value to be found on this card. So, check out my comparison betting odds and valid props for this fight, and share in the sportbook wealth.

Now, onto the fights!

Dominick Cruz -400

Demetrious Johnson +300

Props: Fight Goes Distance/Over

A fighter quickly coming up in the pound for pound lists of the world, Dominick Cruz will move on from avenging his only loss and face a new foe in Demetrious Johnson. This should be an exciting fight to watch on paper, and one you can anchor your entire betting slip on, as Cruz should have this in hand.  While Johnson is a fantastic fighter, he has two avenues to victory, those being to out-wrestle or outlast an opponent. Neither of these should present themselves, as the much larger and more dynamic Cruz can beat Johnson at the wrestling game, and has proven five round cardio. Between Cruz movement and sharp takedowns, Johnson is going to be run ragged in this fight, and Cruz comes out as one of the best bets of the night.

Pat Barry -140

Stefan Struve +110

Props: Fight Goes Distance/Over, Barry by KO, Struve by Submission

Two fighters trying to rebound from KOs will face off in what could be a last chance for either man in the promotion. While Struve being knocked out cold is nothing new, Barry’s sensational and sudden knockout loss was one that even made non-MMA news feeds, and will be a tough one to erase. The size differential here is ridiculous and makes this a much closer fight than it generally would be, as Struve’s glass jaw is constantly in danger against men his own size. The big question will be if Barry can close distance, avoid the mat, and land KO shots on Struve without exposing himself to counter punches.  While I do think Barry can get this done, Struve has all the tools to knock Barry silly if he can counter the leg kicks with his power punches. On the mat, this is a foregone conclusion, and I’m willing to bet Struve would have no problem pulling guard to get what he wants here. Overall, I see props being far smarter than straight bets here, and the string above should easily cover you.

Anthony Johnson

Anthony Johnson -185

Charlie Brenneman +145

Props: Johnson by KO

It’s wrestler vs. wrestler here, as Charlie Brenneman, coming off the biggest win of his career, takes on veteran fighter Anthony Johnson. Brenneman shocked the MMA world with his win over Rick Story last time out, but draws a much different foe in Johnson, who has the reputation of being the largest Welterweight in the UFC. While wrestling credentials might not line up, Johnson is a pure athlete with a huge bag of tricks on the feet, and Brenneman will likely find Johnson doesn’t wish to play his game.  This is a classic case of Brenneman not being able to finish this fight, while Johnson can end it with a single strike. With a full training camp under him with Rashad Evans mimicking Brenneman, Johnson should be well prepared for this bout and should be a strong favorite. Props wise, I think Johnson by KO makes the most sense, as Brenneman doesn’t have the iron-clad chin he’d need to hang for a full three rounds.

Matt Wiman -185

Mac Danzig +145

Props: Wiman Inside Distance

A long-awaited rematch for Danzig comes to fruition, as he finally gets his chance to face Matt Wiman again. Their first match ended in controversy after the referee assumed Danzig had been choked out, and while this fight isn’t a pivotal one for the division, it does have the makings of a classic bout. Both men are well-rounded and gritty fighters, but Wiman’s size and pure offensive ability will always give him the edge over the more finesse-oriented Danzig. I don’t expect this to be much different from the first outing, as Wiman should be able to end Danzig inside distance with a submission or TKO.

Yves Edwards -120

Rafaello Oliveira -120

Props: None

The token “Keep your wallet closed” bout of the night, journeyman fighter Yves Edwards will face on-again off-again UFC fighter Rafaello Oliveira in an exciting, yet unprofitable bout. Both men have had trouble treading water at this level of competition, yet still have a great deal of skill between the two of them, making this a competitive bout. While I’d give Edwards a small edge here due to his versatility, this is a toss-up with an unpredictable ending. Enjoy the show and avoid the wager.

Michael Johnson -240

Paul Sass +180

Props: Fight Ends Inside/Under, Sass by Submission

A one-trick pony with a really great trick, Paul Sass has made his young career off of his relentless bottom game BJJ, but draws a monster of an opponent in Michael Johnson. Despite his finale spot resulting in a losing effort to Brookins, Johnson was able to show his worth in that and his subsequent fight, making him a strong addition to the LW division. While Sass was able to win in the regional circuit, his predictable assault of guard pulls and leg locks will do him few favors in the wrestling-heavy world circuit. Johnson has all the agility, hand-speed, and mat sense to avoid Sass single-facet, either taking this by decision or KO. Betting wise, you’re going to want to hit Sass Submission and perhaps a few positive props for Johnson, as this is an easy arb opportunity with Sass single avenue to victory.

Mike Easton -130

Jeff Hougland EV

Props: Fight Goes Distance/Over

A long-time travelling fighter, Mike Easton finally makes his way into the big time, taking on Jeff Hougland. Easton is the classic offensive grappler with weak positioning and rushed submissions, making him a dangerous foe against some, and a throwaway opponent against strong wrestlers with submission defense. I’m not sure what category Hougland falls into here, as his all-around scrappy style could help or hinder him in this bout. This is one that I see going late, and one where Easton should get the nod more often than not due to takedowns.

Shane Roller -130

TJ Grant EV

Props: None

One of my favorite lower-tier fighters will make the drop to LW, as Canada’s TJ Grant faces grizzled wrestler Shane Roller. Grant hasn’t had the easiest road in the UFC, and doesn’t appear to be getting a break with this fight, as Roller is exactly the kind of guy who has given him trouble in the past. With that said, Grant has almost every out in this fight, with his superior striking, submissions and bottom game BJJ, but this will all be for naught if he’s stuck under Roller for 3 rounds. Too much can happen in this fight, so look for decent straight odds and go from there.

Josh Neer -120

Keith Wisniewski -120

Props: Neer Inside, Wisniewski by Decision

An odd pair of signings will square off, as UFC veteran Josh Neer takes on regional fighter Keith Wisniewski. Wisniewski has been around a long time, but has never broken into the major leagues of MMA, and his signing honestly confuses me here. Oddly enough, Wisniewski’s almost pure wrestling assault makes him a poor match for Josh Neer, who found himself booted from the UFC for failing to defeat the majority of Lightweight wrestlers. This fight comes down to whether or not Neer can finish the fight off his back or with his bizarre striking style, as Wisniewski has all the grappling experience to ride out the clock of Neer’s expense. I wouldn’t bet heavy here, but look for decent straight lines or O/U here, and use the above props if available for a few extra bucks.

Joseph Sandoval -150

Walel Watson +120

Props: Fight Ends Inside Distance/Under

Two newcomers will come together in their debut, as lanky muay thai and BJJ specialist Walel Watson faces gritty striker Joseph Sandoval. These two fighters have both done well for themselves in their respective regions as they’re both aggressive finishers, but this fight leans towards Sandoval in my books. While Watson is dangerous, his chin is a bit suspect, which won’t pair well against Sandoval’s sharp power punching on the inside. It’s never smart to bet huge with two organizational newcomers, but look for value on the finish.

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Category: Betting, Exclusive, Featured, MMA, Opinion, UFC

About the Author ()

I'm a 20+ year veteran of martial arts and a fan of MMA since UFC 1, when my world was thrown on its head by the budding sport. I'm obsessive in the pursuit of martial abilities and have competed across the country in everything from Vale Tudo to archery to Scottish broadsword. Once my body broke down, I picked up a pen and went in the direction of writing. I specialize in betting advice, predictions, and I'm a walking encyclopedia of MMA trivia. I own a cafe in Exeter, NH called Hammersmith Sandwich Company and write out of my office between customers.

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